Developments on the Ground and Information from Open Sources:
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) withdrew from Manbij following the intervention of the US-led Coalition and assurances of the following:"A ceasefire will be established."
"The Euphrates River will serve as the boundary."
"Civilians in Manbij city center will not be harmed, and no military presence will be maintained there."
However, the Turkish side rejected the ceasefire and continued its attacks. Civilians in Manbij city center were subjected to oppression, which led to uprisings among local tribes. Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) groups attempted to cross the Euphrates River and seize the Qereqozax Bridge and Tishrin Dam.
During this period, efforts were made to forcibly take the area east of Qereqozax Bridge, where the former site of the Suleyman Shah Tomb is located, and establish a military base there. The aim was to raise the flag and conduct propaganda. Despite Mazloum Abdi’s call for “dialogue” regarding the tomb site, a forced operation was launched to present a fabricated "victory." However, Turkey's underlying agenda was to use the tomb as a pretext to establish a heavily armed military base, encircle Kobani from the western front, and keep it under constant threat. For this reason, Mazloum Abdi’s reasonable proposal was not accepted.
To achieve these objectives, relentless and intense attacks were carried out for 14 consecutive days. The most significant assaults occurred on December 21, lasting 12 hours. The day after the attacks, Hakan Fidan traveled to Damascus while Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) commanders reached the border area. These visits were planned to coincide with an intended capture of the region, as a display of power. However, the assaults were repelled, and the SNA suffered significant losses.
Special warfare tactics, live broadcasts, and threats like "we're coming, any moment now" were employed to instill fear in Kobani’s population and force them to flee.
The December 21 Attacks and the SDF’s Response:
After the December 21 attacks were thwarted, the SDF bolstered its defensive strategies with renewed vigor.Operation to Defend Manbij Initiated: An operation was launched around Manbij, the focal point of attacks on Tishrin Dam and Qereqozax Bridge. The operation was named "Martyr Eziz Arab Manbij Campaign."
(Eziz Arab was a member of a local Arab family and an SDF fighter who served as a commander on this front. He lost his life in the clashes.)
Recent Developments:
The operation, which began yesterday and is ongoing, represents an active and preemptive defensive effort.SDF’s New Position: This operation is a response to attacks targeting Kobani, despite the SDF’s efforts for a ceasefire and reasonable solutions.
Answering the People’s Call: The operation also responds to calls for help from the people of Manbij. Its objective is the liberation of Manbij and will proceed with this goal in mind.
The Course of the Conflict and the SDF’s Strategy:
Looking at the 15-day conflict, it is evident that the SDF has maintained significant initiative. Their strategies include:Air Superiority: The SDF uses aerial assets to monitor and strike enemy forces. Numerous videos have been released showcasing this. Additionally, two Turkish drones were shot down, with visual evidence provided.
Tunnel Defense: SDF fighters utilized pre-prepared tunnels for area defense and maintained control.
Counteroffensives: While strengthening area control and defense, SDF fighters launched counterattacks when necessary, further weakening the SNA. This left the SNA vulnerable both on the ground and in the air.
SNA Weakening: Despite direct coordination and air support from Turkey, the SNA is faltering in clashes. Its already limited combat capability continues to diminish. Psychological dominance is with the SDF. Morale within SNA ranks is also deteriorating due to the situation in other regions, with fighters questioning their presence in the area, saying, "What are we even doing here?" Many have fled, as their motivation to fight for Turkish state objectives—beyond the $300-500 payments they receive—has vanished.
This defense strategy, coupled with the population’s refusal to abandon the area, is undermining Turkey’s plans.
What Lies Ahead?It remains uncertain how far the SDF will extend its defensive operations. No official statement has been made about entering Manbij city center.
The SNA appears to be encircled in the region, with signs of accelerated disintegration.
Potential Turkish strategies:Deploying direct military forces, which could lead to direct clashes between TAF and SDF.
Opening new fronts to divert the SDF’s attention.
Increasing airstrikes
If these efforts fail, initiating negotiations to transfer the region to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS
The US Position:
Having mediated the ceasefire but failed to pressure the other side adequately, the US’s stance remains unclear. They are likely to observe developments and adopt a position based on the prevailing outcomes. Until now, the approach of the US and EU has been limited to expressing "deep concerns," without leading to concrete results.
Amed DİCLE
